Commodities rally or near the end

Commodity rebound or near the end of hot column capital flows thousands of thousands of stocks the latest Rating Rating diagnosis simulated trading client Sina fund exposure table: the letter Phi lag of false propaganda, long-term performance is lower than similar products, to buy the fund by the pit how to do? Click [I want to complain], Sina help you expose them! – Cheng Xiaoyong Baocheng Futures Institute of Finance in the global financial market volatility continued to decline on the occasion, the commodities rally began to show signs of fatigue, which in 2016 rose top zinc and coke steel (including iron ore), building materials (glass, methanol) and hedge commodities (gold and silver) in late August after or high the shock, or there was a substantial retracement. There are two possible reasons are leading commodities especially commodity prices rebound into the end: one is the monetary marginal convergence, two is the inventory cycle inflection point lead since the beginning of the relationship between supply and demand from the marginal improvement to neutral or even weaker. Review of the commodity rally trajectory since 2016, excluding monetary easing led to an increase in the demand for funds for commodity asset allocation, the marginal improvement in supply and demand is the main cause of commodity rebound. Since the beginning of 2016, double driving force on the one hand, infrastructure and real estate, commodity demand side appears to improve; on the other hand, spontaneous supply side under the reform of administrative and business losses caused by the limited production capacity, making the commodity output slowdown or even decline. Two factors lead to a marginal improvement in the supply and demand of commodities, especially industrial products, that is, the supply reduction and demand warmer. After a strong rebound in commodity prices, including non-ferrous metals, steel and other industries gradually turnaround, so although the supply side reforms or to guide the excess capacity of the industry to go, but to increase the capacity of the difficulty. The reason is: first, experienced in 2016 to capacity, part of the backward production capacity shut down shut down, the elimination of elimination, the rest are new capacity to meet the requirements of environmental protection and technology; secondly, from the perspective of excess capacity, for enterprises as long as the product price is high in cost, the enterprise overall capacity is profitable, then the theory does not belong to overcapacity. Indicators show that the slowdown in production has emerged inflection point. Industrial added value growth rose to 7.2% in July, indicating that industrial production has rebounded significantly. In addition, another indicator reflects the supply side – manufacturing investment growth in July began to pick up. National Bureau of statistics data show that in July manufacturing investment growth from -0.4% in June rose to 1.6%. From the demand side, the investment in fixed assets and real estate investment slowdown can be seen as commodity demand began to fall. 1-7 months, urban fixed asset investment increased by 8.1%, down from the first half of the year by 0.9 percentage points, of which investment in infrastructure and real estate investment fell by 1.3 percentage points compared with the first half and 0.8 percentage points. July investment in infrastructure and real estate investment fell 10 percentage points compared with June and 2 percentage points. The most important thing is that the scale of industrial enterprises from the July release of finished goods inventory data, in July the industrial production of finished goods inventories fell -1.8%, compared with 0.1 in the convergence of the hundred in June相关的主题文章: